Crypto and macro

Interest rates change the alternatives to crypto

Interest rates influence the return available on cash and government debt and the cost of borrowing. Those changes can affect demand for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Inflation, employment and economic growth also affect what investors expect central banks to do next.

Crypto prices respond to several forces at once. Fund flows, leverage, security incidents, regulation and activity on a network can move prices alongside economic news. A price move after an announcement needs evidence before it can be assigned to one cause.

The US policy rate is 3.75–4%

On 16 September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75–4%. All twelve voting members supported the decision. That is the latest published decision checked on 10 October.

The remaining scheduled meetings in 2026 are 27–28 October and 8–9 December, according to the Federal Reserve calendar. The announcement normally follows the second day. Investors compare the decision and the accompanying explanation with the expectations already reflected in market prices.

Correlation depends on the period measured

A correlation describes how two return series move together over a chosen period. Its value depends on the assets, frequency and start and end dates used. A short period of close movement between Bitcoin and technology shares can change as market conditions change.

For a useful comparison, specify the same dates and return frequency for both assets. Compare that result with a longer window before treating it as a lasting relationship. Historical correlation describes the sample being measured; it can change during the next period.

Follow dated economic and investment records

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes inflation and employment releases; the Federal Reserve publishes decisions, projections and meeting minutes. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows provide a separate measure of demand through listed funds. Reading these records together gives a clearer view than using a single indicator to explain every price move.